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Boise is among 11 secondary counties poised to thrive over the next decade as the commercial real estate landscape is altered by the effects of COVID and migration trends, according to new research by the CBRE national brokerage.

Other western market areas in the group are Ogden and Spokane, although Colorado’s front range towns and tertiary markets like Bozeman, Missoula, Provo and Reno are also charting new price records along with a scant supply of investment properties to choose from today.

The office sector is viewed as particularly vulnerable in major markets. National office vacancy climbed to nearly 18 percent in Q4 last year with New York City and San Francisco posting the largest declines. As a result, downtown office high-rise values are predicted to fall by 10 to 15 percent in 2021.

Factors assessed by CBRE’s Location Incentives Group included: population growth and momentum, public transportation dependence, housing costs, airport access, higher education options and climate.

Employers are recalibrating their priorities and real estate footprints to consider the growing appeal of secondary and tertiary markets as valuable members of the workforce eschew large “gateway cities.” Suburban office values are set to climb as millennials mature into middle age and flock to more affordable, family-friendly suburbs and smaller cities away from the East and West coasts.


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